September Freight Data Shows Higher Rates and Renewed Volume

September Data Offers a Stronger Freight Signal

A new freight-market report released October 13 points to a potentially important shift for U.S. trucking: shipment activity improved for a second consecutive month in September while baseline truckload pricing continued to rise.

Cass Information Systems reported that its Freight Index shipments measure increased 2.3% from August and 1.9% from September 2025. The company said it was the second straight year-over-year gain after a 3.5-year decline by that measure.

At the same time, the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index reached 154.8 in September. That was up 0.6% from August and 10.1% from a year earlier. The index measures per-mile dry-van truckload linehaul pricing and excludes fuel and accessorial charges.

The combination matters because trucking markets can see rate gains without a meaningful pickup in freight demand, particularly when capacity is leaving the market. September's report showed both higher pricing and higher shipment activity, although it is still too early to call the result a sustained freight-cycle recovery.

What the latest report showed

Cass' September report included three notable readings:

• **Shipments rose 2.3% month over month** and 1.9% year over year.
• **Freight expenditures increased 6.7% from August** and 20.4% year over year.
• **Truckload linehaul rates rose 10.1% year over year**, extending a long period of annual rate growth.

Cass said the expenditure increase reflected a mix of higher shipment counts, higher freight rates and fuel surcharges. That distinction is important for carriers and shippers. Total transportation spending can rise sharply when diesel costs jump, even when the underlying rate paid for the truck and driver is moving more gradually.

The linehaul index is intended to isolate the base transportation charge. It includes a mix of contract and for-hire spot freight but has historically been weighted more heavily toward the contract market. That means the 10.1% annual increase should not be treated as a direct measure of every load board rate or every carrier's revenue per mile.

Cass also noted that the September month-over-month linehaul gain was slower than its average pace earlier in 2026. Its analysis pointed to some recent easing in spot rates and a slower contract-bid environment at this point in the year.

Why higher shipments are getting attention

The shipment increase is the more consequential part of the report. Freight demand has been uneven for an extended period, and a one-month improvement alone does not establish a new trend. But September followed another year-over-year shipment gain in August.

Cass attributed the improvement in part to modest retail and industrial growth, inventory restocking and stronger container imports. The report also cited a smaller private-fleet footprint and rising new-equipment sales as factors that could support for-hire freight volumes.

For carriers, two consecutive positive annual shipment readings may mean more opportunities in selected lanes, equipment types and customer segments. It does not mean capacity is suddenly tight everywhere. Freight conditions can differ substantially between dry van, refrigerated, flatbed, dedicated, port and regional operations.

For owner-operators and small fleets, the practical question remains whether available rates cover the full cost of operation. A positive national index does not guarantee that a particular lane pays enough after fuel, insurance, maintenance, tolls, deadhead and broker fees.

What it could mean for drivers and carriers

If higher shipment volumes continue through the fourth quarter, carriers may have more leverage in customer rate discussions and more consistent freight for drivers. Companies that reduced fleet size, parked equipment or limited hiring during weaker conditions could face pressure to add capacity carefully.

Drivers may see more practical effects in the form of steadier miles, fewer gaps between assignments or increased opportunities in freight-heavy markets. However, individual driver earnings still depend heavily on pay structure, freight mix, home-time preferences, detention practices and how much of a carrier's work is contract versus spot business.

Carrier operations teams should avoid assuming that September's result applies evenly across their network. Instead, they can compare internal data with the broader market:

• Review loaded miles, revenue per loaded mile and revenue per total mile by lane.
• Separate fuel surcharge revenue from base linehaul revenue when evaluating pricing gains.
• Watch tender acceptance, reload opportunities and dwell time for signs that demand is improving locally.
• Confirm whether stronger freight is concentrated among existing customers or is appearing in new bid and spot opportunities.
• Keep equipment and driver plans disciplined until volume gains hold across several reporting periods.

Recruiting teams may also want to watch this development. A more durable rise in freight activity can change the hiring picture quickly, especially for fleets that need experienced drivers in specialized freight segments or tight labor markets. Still, recruiters should not rely on a single national freight report to forecast openings, pay changes or hiring demand.

Important limits of the data

The Cass Freight Index is a useful industry indicator, but it is not a census of all U.S. trucking activity. Its shipment measure covers for-hire freight across domestic transportation modes, with truckload and less-than-truckload representing much of the data set. The company adjusts the index for workdays and changes in its client base.

The timing also deserves attention. Cass says its data reflect the month when freight invoices are processed, which is not always the same month when the freight physically moved. That makes the index a timely signal, but not a real-time dispatch report.

Likewise, the Truckload Linehaul Index focuses on dry-van truckload pricing. It excludes fuel and accessorials and should not be used as a direct proxy for all-in revenue, diesel-sensitive spot pricing or rates in every equipment category.

These caveats do not erase the September improvement. They explain why fleets should use the report as one market input alongside their own customer demand, freight availability, operating costs and service performance.

What to watch next

The next several data releases will help determine whether September marked the early stage of a broader freight recovery or a short-lived seasonal improvement.

Key indicators to monitor include:

• October shipment readings from Cass and other freight-market measures.
• Contract-rate trends as shippers approach 2027 procurement cycles.
• Spot-rate direction after accounting for fuel costs.
• Diesel prices and surcharge recovery, which can materially affect all-in freight spend.
• Import, retail and industrial activity that could support inland freight demand.
• Carrier capacity decisions, including equipment purchases, fleet reductions and driver hiring.

For now, the October 13 release provides a clearer signal than trucking has seen in much of the recent downturn: September brought both stronger freight counts and higher underlying truckload linehaul prices. The evidence is encouraging, but fleets and drivers will need several more months of consistent improvement before treating it as a broad-based market reset.